• Heavy precipitation continues across East Africa; however many local areas in western Ethiopia are experiencing a growing delay to seasonal rainfall with developing moisture deficits.

1) Since the beginning of the year, poorly distributed and significantly below average seasonal rainfall has led to deteriorating ground conditions, stressed vegetation and negatively impacted cropping activities and livestock throughout many parts of southwestern Africa. Many local areas in Angola and Namibia have experienced less than half of their normal rainfall accumulation since January, as pronounced dry spells have affected parts of Zambia, Botswana and South Africa since February. The likelihood for recovery is minimal as the southern African monsoon season is coming to an end.

2) After rainfall surpluses during January, rainfall has significantly reduced since mid-February. This has led to developing dryness, with rainfall deficits exceeding 100 mm over the Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces of northern Mozambique over the past thirty days. Dryness could persist and potentially negatively impact crops as light rain is forecast over the next outlook period.

3) Since the beginning of March, enhanced rainfall has in the Greater Horn has not been distributed over the northern and western portions of Ethiopia. As a result, the development of early to mid-season moisture deficits is likely to continue to negatively impact cropping activities in parts of the Oromia and eastern Amhara regions.

4) Above-average rains over the past six weeks have resulted in moisture surpluses favorable for agricultural activities across parts of Cote D’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin,
Nigeria, and Cameroon. Average to above-average rain is expected to continue over the outlook period, sustaining adequate moisture across the region.

5) Combined with significantly heavy rainfall during last week, enhanced rainfall forecast over eastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia during the outlook period elevates the risk for flooding along the Shabelle and Jubba River basins.

6) Several consecutive days of moderate to heavy precipitation has led to localized flooding, damages to infrastructure and fatalities throughout many parts of Kenya. Torrential amounts of precipitation are again forecast in many of these areas in southwestern and central Kenya during the next seven days.

Thirty-day rainfall surpluses continue to grow across western Ethiopia and western South Sudan

1) Poorly distributed and significantly below average seasonal rainfall has resulted in deteriorating ground conditions since January. This has negatively impacted crops and livestock throughout many parts of southern Angola and northern Namibia.

2) Since the second dekad of March, little to no rainfall has been received across portions of eastern Angola, and western Zambia. Late season moisture deficits indicate an early departure of the southern Africa monsoon in the region. The poor rains have led to an expected maize crop reduction in parts of southern Zambia.

3) Since the beginning of February, pronounced dry spells and poorly distributed seasonal rainfall have negatively affected parts of the Caprivi Strip region, Zambia, Botswana, Zimbabwe and South Africa.

4) Poor March rainfall and deteriorating soil moisture across parts of Malawi, eastern Zambia, southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique is likely to adversely affect crops in the region.

5) After above-average precipitation was received in January, seasonal rainfall has ceased since mid-February leading to significant ground moisture deficits in northern Mozambique.

6) Despite an increase in rainfall since mid-April, the delayed onset of seasonal rainfall has led to unfavorable ground conditions for northeastern “Belg” producing areas of Ethiopia. The erratic nature of the seasonal rains has negatively impacted cropping activities, likely resulting in below-average crop yields.

An insufficient rain since the start of the season has resulted in abnormal dryness across parts of northern Nigeria.

1) Despite an increase in rainfall since mid-April, the delayed onset or seasonal rainfall has led to unfavorable ground conditions for the northeastern Belg-producing areas of Ethiopia. The erratic nature of the seasonal rains has negatively impacted cropping activities, likely resulting in below-average crop yields.

2) Since the beginning of May, an intermittent but insufficient rain has increased rainfall deficits over parts of north central Nigeria. Rainfall forecast during the next week indicate light to locally moderate showers, possibly worsening ground conditions.

Heavy rains were observed across dry areas in bi-modal regions along the Gulf of Guinea.

1) A pronounced late start of seasonal rainfall in July has delayed planting by approximately one month and has reduced crop yields across many parts of Sudan. The onset of continuous seasonal rainfall during September and October now remains critical for several local areas that have planted late. However, with seasonal rains quickly coming to an end, little time remains for additional rainfall.

2) Frequent and above-average rains over the past several weeks have resulted in large rainfall surpluses across far western West Africa. Locally heavy rains are again forecast across Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia during the upcoming outlook period. This could continue to exacerbate saturated ground conditions over many areas.

3) Since June, insufficient and poorly-distributed rainfall has led to large rainfall deficits across the Gulf of Guinea countries and has reduced maize yields in Ghana and southern Togo and in southwestern Nigeria. Although seasonal rainfall is expected to increase, below average rainfall totals have already been observed since the beginning of September. Average rainfall is forecast during the beginning of October which is expected to relieve some dryness.

 After a week of heavy rain, rains across bi-modal West Africa were light and below-average.

 Anomalous heavy early-season rainfall was observed across much of Mozambique.

1) Since June, insufficient and poorly-distributed rainfall has led to large rainfall deficits across the Gulf of Guinea countries and has reduced maize yields in Ghana and southern Togo and in southwestern Nigeria. Although seasonal rainfall is expected to increase, below average rainfall totals have already been observed since the beginning of September. Average to below-average rainfall is forecast during the next week.

2) Forecasted heavy and torrential rains across the SNNP and southern Oromia regions of Ethiopia and northern Kenya will increase the risk for localized flash flooding during the next week.

1) Since June, insufficient and poorly-distributed rainfall has led to large rainfall deficits across the Gulf of Guinea countries and has reduced maize yields in Ghana, southern Togo and in southwestern Nigeria. Although seasonal rainfall has increased during the second peak of the bi-modal rainfall season, below average thirty and sixty day rainfall totals have continued. Average rainfall is forecast during the next week.

2) Anomalous lower level wind convergence is likely to cause torrential rain across central Somalia. At the start of the Deyr rainy season, this region of Somalia is still dry. Heavy rains could result in localized flash flooding.

Localized heavy rain showers were observed across central Somalia.

1) Since June, insufficient and poorly-distributed rainfall has led to large rainfall deficits across the Gulf of Guinea countries and has reduced maize yields in Ghana, southern Togo and in southwestern Nigeria. Although seasonal rainfall has increased during the second peak of the bi-modal rainfall season, below-average thirty and sixty day rainfall totals have continued in Nigeria and coastal areas in Togo and Benin, maintaining drought conditions. However, impacts in southwestern Nigeria are not significant as most crops have already been harvested. Below-average rainfall is forecast during the next week.

2) Anomalous lower level wind convergence is likely to cause torrential rain across isolated portions of central Somalia for a second consecutive week. These heavy rains could result in localized flash flooding in the Nugaal, Mudug, Galguduud, Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions of central Somalia.

An increase in rain across South Africa reduces early season rainfall deficits.

1) Since June, insufficient and poorly-distributed rainfall has led to large rainfall deficits across the Gulf of Guinea countries and has reduced maize yields in Ghana, southern Togo and in southwestern Nigeria. Although seasonal rainfall has increased during the second peak of the bi-modal rainfall season, below-average thirty and sixty day rainfall totals have continued in Nigeria and coastal areas in Togo and Benin, maintaining drought conditions. However, impacts in southwestern Nigeria are not significant as most crops have already been harvested. Light rainfall is forecast during the next week.

• Significantly heavy amounts of rainfall are expected to worsen flooding conditions across eastern Tanzania.

1) Poorly distributed seasonal rainfall since February has led to deteriorating ground conditions in western Angola. As seasonal rains are expected to decline this month, these long-term moisture deficits are likely to negatively impact crop and pastoral conditions for many areas.

2) Several consecutive days of torrentially heavy rainfall during the last seven days has resulted in widespread flooding, displaced populations, damage to infrastructure, and fatalities in the northeastern coast of Tanzania. A continuation of enhanced precipitation is expected during the middle of April, which may likely lead to additional flooding in the region.

 Anomalously heavy rains were observed across much of South Sudan, increasing rainfall surpluses.

 Dryness continued across parts of Kenya and northeastern Uganda.

1) Consistently low and infrequent seasonal precipitation across some bimodal rainfall areas of northern Tanzania, southwestern Kenya, and northeastern Uganda have resulted in strengthening moisture deficits since late March. A continuation of suppressed rainfall in May is likely to adversely impact developing crops and pastoral conditions in the region.

• Abnormal dryness continues for another week across parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
  
• Heavy rain reduces long-term rainfall deficits in far western West Africa.

Drought conditions likely in parts of Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Consistently low and infrequent seasonal precipitation across some bimodal rainfall areas of northern Tanzania, as well as western Kenya, northeastern Uganda, southeastern South Sudan, and the southern Rift Valley of Ethiopia have strengthened moisture deficits since late March. The poor rains have negatively impacted livestock, led to the replanting of crops, and caused reductions in crop yields. Continued poor rainfall in May is likely to adversely impact crops and pastoral conditions in the region.

2. Sporadic rainfall during the past several months has led to rainfall deficits and dryness over the Hirraan, Galgaduud, and Mudug Regions of southern and central Somalia and the Somali and southern Oromia Regions of Ethiopia. This has led to food/water shortages and livestock fatalities. Light to moderate rains should provide some relief during the next week, though dryness will remain.

3. Torrential coastal showers in coastal Kenya and in the Tanga, Pwani and Dar es Salaam Regions of Tanzania have caused flooding that has destroyed roads and infrastructure and has damaged crops. With heavy rain forecast for the next week, additional flooding is possible.

• Dry, drought conditions persisted across much of western Kenya.

• Torrential rains impacted far western West Africa including Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.

1) Consistently low and infrequent seasonal precipitation across some bimodal rainfall areas of northern Tanzania, as well as western Kenya, northeastern Uganda, southeastern South Sudan and into the southern rift valley of Ethiopia have resulted in strengthening moisture deficits since late March. The poor rains have negatively impacted livestock, led to the replanting of crops, and a reduction in crop yields. A continuation of suppressed rainfall in late May and early June is likely to adversely impact developing crops and pastoral conditions in the region.

2) Sporadic rainfall during the past several months has led to developing rainfall deficits and dryness over the Hirraan, Galgaduud and Mudug regions of southern and central Somalia and the Somali region of Ethiopia. The dryness has led to food/water shortages and livestock fatalities. Light rains forecast should provide some relief during the next week, though dryness will remain.

Drought and dryness in East Africa, with areas of dryness and potential flooding in Latin America and Caribbean

Africa Weather Hazards

1. Consistently low and infrequent seasonal precipitation across some bimodal rainfall areas of northern Tanzania, as well as western Kenya, northeastern Uganda, southeastern South Sudan, and the southern Rift Valley of Ethiopia have strengthened moisture deficits since late March. The poor rains have negatively impacted livestock, led to the replanting of crops, and caused reductions in crop yields. Continued poor rainfall in late May and early June is likely to adversely impact crops and pastoral conditions in the region.

2. Sporadic rainfall during the past several months has led to rainfall deficits and dryness across the Hirraan, Galgaduud, and Mudug Regions of southern and central Somalia and the Somali and southern Oromia Regions of Ethiopia, which has led to water shortages. Light to moderate rains should provide some relief during the next week, though dryness will remain.

 Rainfall forecasts suggest no respite in wetness across far western West Africa during the next outlook period.

 An irregular distribution of rainfall was observed in Eastern Africa during the March-May rainy season.

1) Consistently low and infrequent seasonal rainfall across some bimodal areas of northern Tanzania as well as western Kenya, northeastern Uganda, southeastern South Sudan, and into the southern rift valley of Ethiopia have resulted in strengthening moisture deficits since late March. The poor rains have negatively impacted livestock, led to the replanting of crops, and a reduction in crop yields. Suppressed rains expected during June are likely to worsen crops and pastoral conditions in the region.

2) Sporadic rainfall during the past several months has led to developing rainfall deficits and dryness over the Hirraan, Galgaduud and Mudug regions of southern and central Somalia and the Somali region of Ethiopia. The dryness has led to food/water shortages and livestock fatalities. Little rains forecast should provide some relief during the next week, though dryness will remain.

3) Frequent and above-average rainfall since May has resulted in oversaturation of the grounds of many regions of the far western West Africa, including Guinea Conakry, Sierra Leone, Liberia, southern Mali, and western Cote d’Ivoire. There is an increased chance for localized flooding as heavy downpours are forecast during the next week.

4) Poorly-distributed rainfall since mid-April had led to a rapid deterioration of ground conditions throughout portions of southern Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania. As seasonal rainfall is expected to decrease in June, sustained moisture deficits are likely to negatively impact cropping activities in the region.

• Favorable, late-season rains continued throughout many regions of West Africa during the last week.
  
• Significantly heavy rainfall forecast over northern Somalia and eastern Ethiopia.
  

1) Below-average rains during the Belg season and a late onset of the Kiremt rains have led to persistent moisture deficits, which have delayed planting and negatively affected the development of already-planted crops over the Arsi and West Arsi zones in central Oromia of central Ethiopia.
2) Despite a seasonable return of precipitation during August, moisture deficits have persisted in northwestern Senegal. The delayed onset of the season in July has already resulted in deteriorated conditions and affected crops on the ground.
3) An early cessation of Mar-May seasonal rainfall, as well as, an anomalously dry July have led to deteriorated crop and degraded pasture conditions across several zones in central and northern Ethiopia.
4) Poor seasonal rainfall since the middle of August has led to late-season moisture deficits, increasing the likelihood for adverse ground impacts throughout many parts of western and southern Niger, eastern Mali, and northern Nigeria. Below average rains are forecast in the region for the upcoming outlook period.
5) Poor July rains throughout several local regions in Mali have resulted in degraded crop and pastoral conditions. August and September rains have continued to help improve ground impacts.
6) Torrential amounts of precipitation forecast over arid northern Somalia are likely to trigger localized flooding in the region.
7) Since the beginning of September, poor rains have led to deteriorating crops and compromised planting activities throughout Rwanda.

• Torrential rains continued across much of saturated and flood-affected South Sudan.

• Bi-modal regions of the Gulf of Guinea observed a second week of below-average rain.

1) As the rainfall season ends across Senegal and harvesting begins, impacts from poorly distributed rains during the summer months and a delayed onset to the rainfall season in July which resulted in deteriorated conditions could impact crop yields.

2) Consistent heavy rain during the past several months coupled with torrential rain during the last three weeks has led to flooding in the Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria states of South Sudan. The flooding has killed at least 10 people, displaced thousands and destroyed infrastructure. With additional heavy rain forecast, flooding is likely to continue during the next week.

Second-season dryness continues in Haiti, flooding risks remain in Central America and South Sudan

Africa Weather Hazards

1. As the rainy season in Senegal comes to an end and harvesting begins, reduced crop yields due to this summer’s poorly distributed rainfall and delayed onset of the rainy season in July could become evident.

2. Consistently heavy rain during the past several months and an intensification of rainfall during the last three weeks has caused flooding in Jonglei and Eastern Equatoria States of South Sudan. The flooding has killed at least 10 people, displaced thousands more, and destroyed infrastructure. Flooding is likely to continue during the next week given forecasts for continued heavy rainfall.

• Both poor seasonal rainfall and downstream flooding along the Jubba and Shabelle Rivers are expected to negatively affect many local areas in southern Somalia.
  
• The continued delays in rains lead to strengthening moisture deficits across several areas in Angola and South Africa.
  

1) Low and poorly distributed seasonal “Deyr” rains have led to strengthening moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions throughout several local areas in southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and coastal Tanzania. The persistence of drier than average rainfall in November is likely to negatively affect crop and pastoral areas in the region.

2) Consistent, above-average rains across parts of eastern Ethiopia have led to downstream flooding and crop damages for several areas along the Jubba and Shabelle River basins in southern Somalia. Continued shower activity is expected to worsen hydrological conditions.

3) Suppressed and erratic rains across parts of southern Cote d’Ivoire and southern Ghana Ethiopia during October have led to strengthening dryness. Suppressed rains are forecast throughout the region during early November.

1. Low and poorly distributed seasonal Deyr rains have led to growing moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions throughout several local areas of southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and coastal Tanzania. The persistence of below-average rainfall in November is likely to reduce crop growth and limit the regeneration of pasture.

2. Consistently above-average rainfall across parts of eastern Ethiopia have caused flooding downstream along the Juba and Shabelle River Basins in southern Somalia. Continued rainfall is expected to result in additional flooding.

3. Below-average and erratic rainfall across parts of southern Côte d’Ivoire and southern Ghana during October have led to increasing dryness. Below-average rains are forecast throughout the region during early November.