• Despite a small increase in moisture during the last week, many areas in the Greater Horn remain anomalously dry.

• Suppressed seasonal rains lead to strengthening moisture deficits across several regions in southern Africa.

1) Low and poorly distributed seasonal “Deyr” rains have led to strengthening moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions throughout several local areas in southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and coastal Tanzania. The persistence of drier than average rainfall in November is likely to negatively affect crop and pastoral areas in the region.

2) Suppressed and erratic rains across parts of southern Cote d’Ivoire and southern Ghana during October have led to strengthening dryness. Suppressed rains are forecast throughout the region during early November.

3) Since late September, erratic and poorly distributed rains have led to strong moisture deficits throughout many parts of northern Angola. The early season dryness follows drought conditions from a poor rains season last year, which may further exacerbate ground conditions.

4) Several weeks of infrequent and low rainfall totals has led to anomalously early season dryness throughout parts of southern DRC and northeastern Zambia.

Poor rainfall leads to abnormal dryness in parts of East Africa; slow start to seasonal rainfall in Angola, Zambia

1. Low and poorly distributed seasonal Deyr rains have led to growing moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions throughout several local areas of southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and coastal Tanzania. The persistence of below-average rainfall in November is likely to reduce crop growth and limit the regeneration of pasture.

2. Since late September, erratic and poorly distributed rainfall has led to large moisture deficits in northern Angola. The early season dryness follows drought conditions during last year’s rainy season, which may further worsen ground conditions.

3. Several weeks of infrequent and below-average rainfall has led to unusual early season dryness in parts of southern DRC and northeastern Zambia.

4. Below-average and erratic rainfall across parts of southern Côte d’Ivoire and southern Ghana during October have led to increasing dryness.

• A short period of increased rains helped to relieve many anomalously dry areas in the Greater Horn.

• Strengthening moisture deficits continue throughout parts of northern Angola and eastern Zambia.

1) Low and poorly distributed seasonal “Deyr” rains have led to strengthening moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions throughout several local areas in southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and coastal Tanzania. The persistence of drier than average rainfall in November is likely to negatively affect crop and pastoral areas in the region.

2) Suppressed and erratic rains across parts of southern Cote d’Ivoire and southern Ghana during October have led to strengthening dryness.
Suppressed rains are forecast throughout the region during early November.

3) Since late September, erratic and poorly distributed rains have led to strong moisture deficits throughout many parts of northern Angola. The early season dryness follows drought conditions from a poor rains season last year, which may further exacerbate ground conditions.

4) Several weeks of infrequent and low rainfall totals has led to anomalously early season dryness throughout parts of southern DRC and northeastern Zambia.

Slow start to seasonal rainfall continues in Angola and Zambia, dryness remains in Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania

1. Low and poorly distributed seasonal Deyr rains have led to growing moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions throughout several local areas of southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and coastal Tanzania. The persistence of below-average rainfall in November is likely to reduce crop growth and limit the regeneration of pasture.

2. Since late September, erratic and poorly distributed rainfall has led to large moisture deficits in northern Angola. The early season dryness follows drought conditions during last year’s rainy season, which may further worsen ground conditions.

3. Several weeks of infrequent and below-average rainfall has led to unusual early season dryness in parts of southern DRC and northern Zambia.

4. Below-average and erratic rainfall across parts of southern Côte d’Ivoire and southern Ghana during October have led to increasing dryness.

• Scattered moderate to heavy rains observed in southern Somalia and eastern Kenya.

• Below-average rains persist in central Angola, southern Zambia, and eastern South Africa.

1) Low and poorly distributed seasonal “Deyr” rains have led to strengthening moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions throughout several local areas in southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and coastal Tanzania. Recent rains have relieved dryness over most parts, but rainfall deficits have persisted over many localized areas.

2) Suppressed and erratic rains across parts of southern Cote d’Ivoire and southern Ghana during October have led to strengthening dryness.
Suppressed rains are forecast throughout the region during early November.

3) Since late September, erratic and poorly distributed rains have led to strong moisture deficits throughout many parts of northern Angola. The early season dryness follows drought conditions from a poor rains season last year, which may further exacerbate ground conditions.

4) Several weeks of infrequent and low rainfall totals have led to anomalously early season dryness throughout parts of southern DRC and Zambia. The forecast suppressed rains during the next week are likely to worsen conditions on the ground.

5) Since October, poorly distributed rains and dry spells have led to a deterioration of ground conditions throughout several states of South Africa, southeastern Botswana, and Swaziland.

1. Low and poorly distributed seasonal Deyr rains have led to growing moisture deficits and deteriorating ground conditions throughout several local areas of southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and coastal Tanzania. The persistence of below-average rainfall in November is likely to reduce crop growth and limit the regeneration of pasture.

2. Since late September, rainfall has been below average and poorly distributed throughout northern Angola. These deficits follow drought conditions during the rainy season last year, which may result in even poorer ground moisture for agricultural activities.

3. Parts of Zambia and southern DRC are abnormally dry during the beginning of this rainy season, due to several weeks of infrequent and below-average rainfall. Below-average rainfall forecast for the next week is likely to worsen ground conditions.

4. Since October, dry spells and poorly distributed rainfall has led to low soil moisture in parts of South Africa, southeastern Botswana, and Swaziland.

5. Below-average and erratic rainfall across parts of southern Côte d’Ivoire and southern Ghana during October have led to increasing dryness.

• Very poor rains across northern Ethiopia expected to negatively affect “Belg” season cropping activities.

• Average to above-average rains continue across parts of Kenya, Tanzania, and southern Somalia.

1) Since late December, an unseasonable distribution of monsoonal rainfall has resulted in anomalous dryness across a broad portion of southern Africa. Low seasonal precipitation totals and untimely dry spells has negatively affected ground conditions and is likely to lead crop reductions for several local areas in southern Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and South Africa.

2) Below-average rainfall since March, which have already impacted crop conditions across the bimodal region of northern Tanzania. Increased rains over northwestern Tanzania have helped to alleviate short-term moisture deficits.

3) Poorly distributed rainfall and extended dry spells since January have led to large rainfall deficits and degraded vegetation conditions in southern Angola and northern Namibia.

4) Erratic, below-average rainfall since February combined with four consecutive weeks of little to no rainfall since mid-March has led to large moisture deficits and rapidly deteriorating ground conditions in Ethiopia. The mid-season absence of precipitation is likely to adversely affect cropping activities for several “Belg” producing areas of the country.

5) Late season moisture deficits associated with an early cessation of the southern Africa monsoon has negatively affect cropping conditions for parts of northern Malawi and northern Mozambique.

• A continued absence of rainfall across northern Ethiopia expected to adversely affect crop and pastoral conditions.
  
• Largely suppressed early season rains observed during the 2nd dekad of April over much of West Africa.
  

1) Since late December, an unseasonable distribution of monsoonal rainfall has resulted in anomalous dryness and poor ground conditions unfavorable for crops across several local areas in southern Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and South Africa.
2) Below-average rainfall since March, which have already impacted crop conditions across the bimodal region of northern Tanzania.
3) Poorly distributed rainfall and extended dry spells since January have led to large rainfall deficits and degraded vegetation conditions in southern Angola and northern Namibia.
4) Very poor rainfall since February combined with five consecutive weeks of virtually no rainfall since mid-March has led to large moisture deficits and rapidly deteriorating ground conditions in Ethiopia, Djibouti and eastern Eritrea. The mid-season absence of precipitation is likely to adversely affect cropping activities for several “Belg” producing areas of the country.
5) Late season moisture deficits associated with an early cessation of the southern Africa monsoon has negatively affect cropping conditions for parts of northern Malawi and northern Mozambique. 6) Untimely rains and prolonged dry spells have resulted in failed crops over unimodal areas in the Dodoma, Singida, Shinyanga, Tabora, and Kigoma provinces of central Tanzania.
7) Torrential amounts of rainfall triggered flooding across the Nyanza and Nairobi regions of southern Kenya during the last week. Enhanced rainfall is forecast in the region during the next seven days.
8) Seasonally above-average moisture conditions combined with the potential for heavy rainfall forecast across eastern Ethiopia and Somalia is expected to elevate the risk for localized flooding and inundation along the Jubba and Shabelle River basins in Somalia.

- The onset of the rainy season has been sluggish over West Africa, but an increase in rainfall is expected during the next week.

1) An uneven distribution of the March-May rains had adversely impacted crops and ground conditions over the SNNP, central and Belg-producing areas of Ethiopia, eastern Eritrea, and Djibouti. As the March-May season has already ended, recovery is unlikely.

2) Untimely rains and prolonged dry spells had resulted in failed crops over the unimodal areas of the Dodoma, Singida, Shinyanga, Tabora, and Kigoma provinces of central Tanzania. Chances for recovery are nil as the season had already ended.

3) Heavy rains during the past week have resulted in fatalities in Nairobi and flooding over the Otongolo of the Kisumu region of Kenya. With the forecast abundant rains during the next week, elevated risks for flooding remain.

• Abnormal dryness has settled in across West Africa due to insufficient rains since the start of the season.

• Seasonal rains continue in Eastern Africa.

1) An uneven distribution of the March-May rains had adversely impacted crops and ground conditions over the SNNP, central and Belgproducing areas of Ethiopia, eastern Eritrea, and Djibouti. As the March-May season had already ended, recovery is unlikely.

2) A delayed onset of the rainy season followed by poorly-distributed rains has led to abnormal dryness across Burkina Faso, the northern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, western Niger, and northcentral Nigeria, The lack of rains over the past five weeks has delayed planting and already negatively affected cropping activities over many local areas of the region.

• Despite a recent improvement in rainfall, dryness has persisted over parts of West Africa.

• Below-average rainfall observed in northwestern Ethiopia and central South Sudan since the start of the season.

1) An uneven distribution of the March-May rain has adversely impacted crops and ground conditions over the SNNP, central and Belg-producing areas of Ethiopia, eastern Eritrea, and Djibouti. As the March-May season had already ended, recovery is unlikely.

2) A delayed onset of the rainy season, followed by poorly-distributed rainfall, has led to abnormal dryness across Burkina Faso, the northern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, western Niger, and northcentral Nigeria, The lack of rainfall over the past five weeks has delayed planting and already negatively affected cropping activities over many local areas of the region.

• Drier than average conditions observed in southeastern Senegal and western Mali.

• Favorable rainfall distribution continues over the Greater Horn of Africa.

1) A delayed onset of the rainy season, followed by poorly-distributed rainfall, has led to abnormal dryness across Burkina Faso, the northern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, western and southern Niger, and northern Nigeria, The lack of rainfall over the past several weeks has delayed planting and has already negatively affected cropping activities over many local areas.

• A slight decrease in rainfall was observed over West Africa during the past week.

• Parts of Eastern Africa have received below-average rain since the beginning of the season.

1) A delayed onset of the rainy season, followed by poorly-distributed rainfall, has led to abnormal dryness across Burkina Faso, the northern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, western and southern Niger, and northern Nigeria, The lack of rainfall over the past several weeks has delayed planting and has already negatively affected cropping activities over many local areas.

• Rains increase for Nigeria and far Western Africa during the past week.

• Local parts of southeast Sudan and northwest Ethiopia exhibit increasing rainfall deficits in recent weeks.

1) A delayed onset of the rainy season, followed by poorly-distributed rainfall, has led to abnormal dryness across Burkina Faso, the central and northern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, western and southern Niger, and northern Nigeria. The lack of rainfall over the past several weeks has delayed planting and has already negatively affected cropping activities over many local areas.

Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook July 16 – 22, 2015

• Moisture increases for portions of the Senegal region; dry areas farther east show little improvement.

• Moisture deficits deepen in southeast Sudan, Eritrea and northwest Ethiopia with a continued lack of rainfall.

1) A delayed onset of the rainy season, followed by poorly-distributed rainfall, has led to abnormal dryness across Burkina Faso, the central and northern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, western and southern Niger, and northern Nigeria. The lack of rainfall has delayed planting and has already negatively affected cropping activities over many local areas.

2) A delayed onset and general lack of rainfall has resulted in abnormal dryness across extreme western portions of Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and eastern Sudan. The most impacted states in Sudan are Gadaref, Sinar, and Blue Nile, including important agricultural regions where much planting is being delayed.

Climate Prediction Center’s Africa Hazards Outlook July 23 – 30, 2015

• A delayed onset of rainfall is leading to abnormally dry conditions in Chad as well as Senegal and Gambia.

• Moisture deficits worsen further in southeast Sudan, Eritrea and northwest Ethiopia with a continued lack of rainfall.

1) A delayed onset of the rainy season, followed by poorly-distributed rainfall, has led to abnormal dryness across Burkina Faso, the central and northern parts of Ghana, Togo, and Benin, western and southern Niger, and northern Nigeria. The lack of rainfall has already negatively affected cropping activities over many local areas.

1. A delayed onset and general lack of rainfall has resulted in abnormal dryness across extreme western portions of Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and eastern Sudan. The most impacted states in Sudan are Gadaref, Sinar, and Blue Nile, including important agricultural regions where much planting is being delayed.

2. Infrequent and light rains since the beginning of the season have led to insufficient rainfall totals to date for some southern portions of chad. Affected regions include Batha, Biltine, and Ouaddai. A rainfall performance between 5 and 50% of normal,so far, has already led to low soil moisture and poor conditions for vegetation.

3. A slightly delayed start to the season with only sporadic light rains in recent weeks has resulted in abnormal dryness for Gambia and central areas of Senegal. Dry ground conditions have reportedly led to delayed planting and negatively impacted the health of livestock.

• Abundant rain has continued across a wide portion of West Africa.

• Despite a recent increase in rain, seasonal deficits have persisted over parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.

1) Although an increase in rain has been observed over Eastern Africa during the past few weeks, seasonal deficits have persisted in south-central and eastern Sudan, western Eritrea, and northeastern Ethiopia due to the delayed onset and uneven rainfall distribution to the June-September season.

2) Despite recent increase in rainfall, the much delayed start to the rainfall season has resulted in drought, which has severely impacted ground conditions and already led to livestock death across parts of north-central and eastern Ethiopia.

3) Widespread, heavy rain during the past few weeks has caused flooding over localities of West Africa, including several states of Nigeria. Heavy rain is forecast to continue during the next week, which elevates risks for flooding over many alreadysaturated grounds of the sub-region.

4) Eastern Chad and western Sudan have received above-average rain over the past four weeks.
Abundant rain is expected to continue during the next week, heightening risks for localized flooding and potential waterborne disease outbreaks.

• Although decreased rains are expected in West Africa, high ground moisture sustains the risk for floods.
  
• Poorly distributed rains strengthen seasonal deficits over parts of central Ethiopia, South Sudan and Uganda

1) While a recent increase in August precipitation is expected to lead to more favorable ground moisture, a delayed onset and uneven rainfall distribution observed during the June-September season may negatively impact cropping and pastoral conditions in the region.

2) Despite recent increase in rainfall, the much delayed start to the rainfall season has resulted in drought, which has severely impacted ground conditions and already led to livestock death across parts of north-central and eastern Ethiopia.

3) Heavy August rainfall has led to a saturation of ground conditions and localized flooding in several regions of West Africa. The continuation of heavy rainfall remains forecast across the region for the upcoming outlook.

4) Well below-average rainfall during August has led to a strengthening of moisture deficits throughout several provinces in southern South Sudan and northern Uganda. Below-average rainfall is expected in the region for the upcoming outlook period.

- Heavy rains trigger flooding in parts of Nigeria.
- Suppressed rainfall continues over parts of southern Ethiopia, South Sudan and Uganda.

1) While a recent increase in August precipitation is expected to lead to more favorable ground moisture, a delayed onset and uneven rainfall distribution observed during the June-September season may negatively impact cropping and pastoral conditions in the region.

2) Despite recent increase in rainfall, the much delayed start to the rainfall season has resulted in drought, which has severely impacted ground conditions and already led to livestock death across parts of north-central and eastern Ethiopia.

3) Well above-average seasonal has led to a saturation of ground conditions in several regions of West Africa. The continuation of heavy rainfall forecast is expected to sustain the risk of flooding across the region for the upcoming outlook period.

4) Well below-average rainfall during August has led to a strengthening of moisture deficits throughout several provinces in southern South Sudan and northern Uganda. Below-average rainfall is expected in the region for the upcoming outlook period.

5) In early September, locally torrential rains resulted in floods, displaced populations, and damages to crops and infrastructure in the Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, and Kano states of northwestern Nigeria. Heavy rains and a dam failure have also led to flooding, affecting thousands of people in the Gombe and Adamawa states of the country. Average to above-average rainfall is forecast for both regions during the middle of September.

- Suppressed rainfall continues in the Gulf of Guinea region.

- Dryness worsens throughout parts of Ethiopia.

1) While a recent increase in August precipitation has led to more favorable ground moisture, a delayed onset and uneven rainfall distribution observed during the June-September season may negatively impact cropping and pastoral conditions in the region.

2) Poorly distributed rainfall has resulted in drought, which has severely impacted ground conditions and already led to livestock death across parts of north-central and eastern Ethiopia.

3) Below-average rainfall since August has led to a strengthening of moisture deficits throughout several provinces in southern South Sudan and northern Uganda. Below-average rainfall is expected in the region for the upcoming outlook period.

4) Below-average rainfall over several bimodal areas of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria has led to a rapid strengthening of moisture deficits and a degradation of ground conditions. Suppressed precipitation is expected during in the region during late-September.